Having looked at the anticipated growth of Crysler, I thought it might be useful to take a deeper look at the future business potential for this community. In the post “Growing Growing Growing”, I had identified several businesses that I thought (with the aid of AI – Artificial Intelligence) might be present in Crysler in the 2030-time frame. Sadly, I must report that in looking at some of my estimates of population growth for areas adjoining or nearby Crysler, I doubt that there will be sufficient population growth to economically support many of the businesses identified.
Why is that? Let us look at some of the communities nearby and anticipated growth.
Within five minutes of Crysler is the village of Berwick. Housing the municipal offices and garage for North Stormont, it is an attractive community with little business development (the auto repair facility adjoining the local gas station has recently moved to Crysler). The English school has closed but the municipality has plans to possibly move there and offer social services as well.
I again reverted to Google Maps to identify about 60 housing units in Berwick. Using Statistics Canada population estimates of 2.9 people per household in North Stormont, I estimate there are approximately 175 people in Berwick. Composed of older homes, there is no identifiable new development there. Accordingly, I would expect that by 2030 Berwick would have no more that 200 people.
Within 10 minutes of Crysler and just south of Berwick is Finch. There is some commercial development in Finch including a bank, small grocery store, a convenience store and restaurant. There is also a feed mill and landscaping facility within the community. Some stately homes along the main thoroughfare suggest at one time the community was more prosperous, but today there are a number of former businesses boarded up and in disrepair.
From Google Maps I discerned about 150 homes, many of which Google indicated through postal addresses that there were multiple person/family homes. I estimate that Finch has about 435 people and could grow to about 500 people by 2030. There is some new development but not substantial.
To the east of Crysler about 10 minutes away is St. Albert. The community is renown for its cheese factory. St. Albert prides itself to be the cheese curd capital of Canada. The factory is new and a weekend tourist draw, notably for recreational motorcyclists in the summer months. St. Albert also has two building material stores and a lumber yard, an abattoir and convenience store. There is also a community centre. The centre of a dairy farming community, St. Albert is an active village despite its relatively small size. I believe the commercial focus is generally Casselman, a village of about 6,000 people with major grocery stores, banks, a dollar store, restaurants and pubs, fast food restaurants, a Giant Tiger and Canadian Tire, among other small businesses. The pull of Ottawa is also there: a 40-minute commute distance from St. Albert. Even with the significant population growth in Crysler I suspect folks in St. Albert would primarily venture locally to Casselman or more distant Ottawa in the future for commercial services.
I counted about 160 homes in St. Albert and estimate its population to be about 465. Despite some larger commercial ventures, the community is much smaller than Crysler. There is some new housing underway in St. Albert, though, and by 2030 the village could potentially reach a population of 600.
Within 10-15 minutes of Crysler there are many farms and smaller acreage housing lots. The village could potentially serve these rural areas commercially in the future.
By 2030 I would see the potential service area for commercial development in Crysler could include Berwick, Finch, a small portion of the population in St. Albert and the rural areas nearby Crysler. In all, including Crysler which I earlier estimated to be about 2000+ by that time, the potential population that could be commercially serviced could be 3500-4000 people, depending upon the nature of the business.
Based on estimates of revenue required to support a gasoline service station[1], including such add-ons as a convenience store and/or a car wash, it does not seem possible that the population I have estimated could economically justify such an operation. (There may also be some environmental constraints for locating it in the vacant commercial lot just north of the river). It definitely could not support a popular and community focused dollar store[2].
In fact, despite significant anticipated growth for Crysler, there does not seem to be sufficient population potential there and including nearby communities to justify much more commercial development than exists today.
The reality is that Crysler is and will continue to be a bedroom community for Ottawa and a prime central location for construction and farm-support contracting. If the surrounding communities experience greater future growth, it is conceivable that Crysler could attract and sustain more commercial development.
Based upon my analysis, though, I can’t see much future commercial development happening given current growth trends in areas surrounding Crysler.
[1] See
[2] See https://www.statista.com/topics/4250/dollar-stores-in-canada/#topicOverview
MainstreetRob 