Since moving to Crysler, I have been trying to estimate how many people live here and what the growth prospects are for this rural community.
Recently, the kindergarten enrolment introductory session took place at Our Lady du Rosarie School in Crysler. While it offers a French speaking program and has a catholic school board affiliation, it is the educational focal point for virtually all residents with junior (grade k-6) school aged children in this community. According to a well-informed observer familiar with school enrolment infrastructure needs, the school will require two four-year-old kindergarten rooms next year rather than the current one. To me, that view is an interesting indicator of both the community growth and demographic change occurring in Crysler.
Twelve years ago, when my daughter moved to Crysler, there were very few newer homes and none recently-constructed. At that time, and to this day, the established community was comprised mainly of older homes with middle to senior-aged residents. Families with younger children were definitely in the minority at that time. The school comfortably served the families of this community.
Recently, I came across a mapping program[1] that could identify population within a certain distance of a critical point. Using the program with the Crysler fire station as the central point, I established a community “border” approximately five minutes drive or less away. The program estimated the population in 2015 to be 364. Incidentally, this distance roughly corresponds to the urban boundary of Crysler identified in the latest (2018) version of the Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry (SDG) Official Plan. Ten minutes away from the fire station the population was 1137 – this included the communities of Berwick and St. Albert. Fifteen minutes away, including Morewood and Finch,the included population was about 3300. While this data may be useful for business potential, perhaps, it cannot be proven accurate, and of course, it was for a time period nine years ago.
Since 2015, the Crysler community delimited by the Official Plan boundary has added at least 50 new homes on the north side of the river and another 50+ on the south side. An application to add another 272 “doors” on the north was recently approved by the municipal council.
This community is changing dramatically!
I have tried to use census data to estimate Crysler’s current population, but the small scale cannot be publicly identified. So I turned to Artificial Intelligence[2] (AI) which suggested I use a satellite view of Google Maps to count homes in Crysler, warning me that this would provide an estimate only, as some out-buildings could be confused with homes. (My own MainstreetRob Intelligence had thought of this, but AI helped me to actually delimit the boundary area of Crysler and provide a 3D representation of many of the buildings).
By manually counting buildings from Google satellite data, supplemented with a walk-about in Crysler through the areas not shown on that Satellite View, I determined that there are currently approximately 330-350 homes in Crysler. Assuming a population of three people per household (Statistics Canada indicates that for SDG the average household size is 2.9), I would conservatively say that there are more than 1000 people living now (2024) in Crysler. If my mapping program is correct, my population estimate is a threefold increase in population for the community in the last 9 years. Add the new development homes soon to be built, and Crysler could have a population of more than two thousand by the year 2030.
I now believe I have finally obtained a grasp of the current population and some indication of community growth in the next five years. My view is that Crysler is fast outgrowing it’s existing business infrastructure and I suspect we will see much more commercial development in the future. I believe that the existing downtown area, currently on land designated as floodplain, will be usurped by development on non-floodplain land, most notably on the north side of the South Nation River.
So, I went back to AI and asked it to provide me with the types of businesses characteristic of a community of two thousand people, located about 40 minutes from a city of 1 million with about 60% commuting to work, surrounded by a relatively prosperous agricultural area (11% of residents in 2021 in North Stormont[3], which includes the area around Crysler, are employed in agriculture), and a significant number of trade, construction, etc. contractors living in the community (26% of those employed in North Stormont are in trades according to Statistics Canada[4]) .
I’ve added some categories based on businesses in nearby towns and summarized results in Tables 1 and 2, showing current businesses and those not present right now but likely to be established by 2030.
Table 1 – Small Community Businesses in Crysler
| Type of Business | Comment |
| Grocery store | General (convenience) store; no full service |
| Butcher | |
| Liquor/beer/wine | Package and make your own. No cannabis . |
| Pharmacy | Primarily prescriptions; no medical equipment |
| Hardware store | |
| Restaurants (see below) | |
| pub | |
| Pizza (take out) | |
| sit-down comfort fd | |
| Computer support | Home based |
| Post office | |
| Hairdresser/Barbershop | |
| Esthetician | |
| Mechanic/Auto repair shop | Cars, trucks |
| Motorcycle repair | |
| Car wash | |
| Schools | French speaking catholic; other schools served by school bus. JK-6 grade only |
| Community centre | Regular activities |
| Recreation centre | Ice (winter) and racquet sports (summer); boating on river |
| Parks and recreation | Large park with summer pgms; walking/bicycle trails |
| Medical clinic/Doctor’s office | Diabetes clinic – part time doctor & nurse practitioner |
| Dental | Independent dental hygenist – no dentist |
| Insurance Agent | |
| Library | |
| Religious institutions | Catholic only |
| Groomer (dog) | |
| Garden centre | Landscaping materials but no plants |
| Auto parts | |
| Entertainment options | Community centre but no specialty stores |
| Plumber | |
| Electrician | Home based |
| Commercial Sign Making | Home based |
| Local baking | Home based |
| Storage | |
| Landscaping and snow removal |
Table 2 – Small Community Businesses Not in Crysler
| Type of Business | Comment |
| Fruit and vegetable store | |
| Clothing | |
| Shoes/boots | |
| Pharmacy full service | |
| Gas station | |
| Restaurants (see below) | |
| fast-food chain | |
| Dollar store | |
| Book store | |
| Furniture | |
| Medical imaging; blood testing | |
| Physiotherapist | |
| Optometrist | |
| Accountant/Financial Planner | |
| Local government offices | Nearby but no provincial/federal |
| Veterinarian | |
| Pet food store | |
| Feed stores | |
| Farm/auto equipment dealerships | |
| Outdoor recreation businesses (hunting, fishing, mini-putt, etc.) | |
| Farm supply/agriculture | |
| Heating and cooling |
The real test for commercial growth in Crysler should be the initiation of business development on the north side of the river. This is likely to come with the newly planned development on that side of the river. It is likely that prebuilt commercial space created in concert with residential development will be the trigger for the much commercial growth, but I would speculate that a gas station on the vacant lot just over the river on Queen Street may be the first activity.
It seems unlikely to me that commercial development will expand significantly on the current downtown area built on land designated as floodplain.
Time will tell how fast and how much this community grows. But I do believe that if the rate of current residential urbanization continues, business growth will soon follow. And I suggest that increased business growth will foster the attractiveness of the community and further stimulate growth.
I’ll touch base in the near future to see what if any growth activities are underway in Crysler.
[1] See Smappen.com
[2] Gemini.google.com
[3] Statistics Canada, https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/as-sa/fogs-spg/page.cfm?lang=E&topic=10&dguid=2021A00053501020
[4] Ibid.
MainstreetRob 